RBI Bulletin – October 2026
Today, the Reserve Bank released the October 2026 issue of its monthly Bulletin. The Bulletin includes two speeches, four articles and current statistics. The four articles are: I. State of the Economy; II. Transmission to Lending Rates of SCBs: Price versus Composition Effects in WALR; III. Performance of the NBFC Sector: Review for 2025; and IV. Nowcasting State-Level Economic Activity in India…
The Reserve Bank of India released its October 2026 Bulletin, featuring speeches, articles, and statistics. The four articles covered the state of the economy, transmission of lending rates, performance of the NBFC sector, and nowcasting state-level economic activity.
The economy demonstrated resilience despite geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions in West Asia. Inflation rose in September due to higher food, fuel, and core components. Merchandise exports grew double-digit in the first half of 2026-27, reducing the trade deficit. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Eurocurrency Bank (ECB), and remittance flows strengthened in August. The Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) (FCNR(B)) swap window also contributed to reserve accumulation.
Yuvraj Kashyap, Kamal Gupta, and Arvind Jha analyzed how monetary policy impacts fresh lending rates of scheduled commercial banks. Reduced policy rates translated into an 80 bps interest rate effect and a 13 bps composition effect over February 2025 to March 2026. The total reduction in weighted average lending rate (WALR) was 93 bps. Both interest rate and composition effects were crucial in assessing monetary policy transmission.
The non-banking financial company (NBFC) sector recorded double-digit credit growth in the year ending December 2025. Bank borrowings comprised a larger share, highlighting a concentration in funding. Asset quality improved as reflected in declining NPA ratios. Preliminary text mining indicated growing NBFCs' interest in AI for customer, financial, governance, digital infrastructure, and data analytics applications.
Bipul Ghosh, Narendra Singh, and Sandhya Kuruganti developed a methodology to estimate state-level economic activity using night-time lights and Google Trends data. Combining these alternative data sources enhanced the accuracy of quarterly Gross State Value Added (GSVA) growth compared to traditional univariate methods. This real-time monitoring of regional economic dynamics can help early detect turning points and shocks.
The approach demonstrates the potential of alternative data in augmenting official statistical systems and enhancing macroeconomic analysis.
Written by urgent.news from Reserve Bank of India's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
