No electricity, no vote, South Africans threaten to shun ANC

Brazil's upcoming presidential runoff election holds significant implications for South Africa, potentially jeopardizing important bilateral partnerships, multilateral cooperation, and shared commitments to human rights and democracy. On October 25, voters will select between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his son Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of the imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro. Recent polls indicate a statistical tie, making the election outcome crucial.

For South Africa, the stakes are particularly high as the two nations reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening bilateral cooperation during the eighth session of the Brazil-South Africa Joint Commission. International Relations Minister Ronald Lamola emphasized the importance of this partnership amidst a political climate where multilateralism faces critical challenges.

A Bolsonaro presidency could reverse Brazil's progress in promoting a fairer international order and multilateralism. During his father's administration, Brazil distanced itself from its tradition of South-South cooperation, instead prioritizing close ideological ties with the US. Flávio Bolsonaro is likely to revive these ties with Washington, weakening Brazil's independence in global affairs.

This development is concerning as both Brazil and South Africa have faced pressure from Washington, making their cooperation essential.

Additionally, a shift towards closer ties with the US could isolate South Africa, making it more vulnerable to American bullying. Moreover, Lula has historically prioritized stronger relations with African countries due to historical and cultural connections. Under a Bolsonaro administration, this focus could wane, weakening the bridge between Africa and Latin America.

A return to a more pro-Israel stance under a Bolsonaro presidency would also be detrimental. Under Lula, Brazil has been a vocal critic of Israel's military campaign in Gaza and joined South Africa's genocide case against Israel before the International Court of Justice. Flávio Bolsonaro's potential victory suggests a revival of Brazil's close alliance with Israel, which could harm South Africa's efforts to defend justice and accountability for the Palestinian people.

Finally, both Brazil and South Africa have fought against deeply unequal and authoritarian political systems to build democratic societies rooted in equality, dignity, human rights, and international cooperation. A Bolsonaro victory would make it more challenging to promote a progressive vision of South-driven transformation, leaving South Africa isolated in defending a project of global affairs rooted in these principles.