La IA agéntica, la cuenta europea y la deuda soberana amenazan los depósitos de la banca

European AI agents, a European account, and sovereign debt threaten bank deposits. Investment banks predict more struggle for customer resources and higher costs. CaixaBank and Unicaja hold the largest proportion of non-interest-bearing money on their balance sheets. The launch of Meta's personal AI agent, Muse, has brought the future of bank deposits back into focus.

This AI agent can move customers' money to the most advantageous options with minimal effort, even for the most reluctant savers. And these alternatives are multiplying, including among those with lower risk and the potential to compete directly with deposits. Rising interest rates have revived the appeal of sovereign debt, and Europe is promoting an investment account specifically designed to mobilize savings that customers currently keep safe with financial institutions.

The investment bank is starting to monitor these threats to determine their impact on the banking sector. And Spain is among those being watched most closely. Spanish banks hold a higher volume of non-interest-bearing deposits than the rest of Europe. Analysts question what will happen to this money if AI agents (capable of reasoning, planning, and executing) make it possible for owners to jump to a risk-free alternative simply by asking for it.

CaixaBank and Unicaja lead the ranking, receiving no euro from 73% of their deposits, according to UBS data. Sabadell only remunerates 40% and Bankinter 43%. Santander and BBVA do not publish these figures, but the average cost they spend on their private customers' deposits in Spain is 0.58%, and both have touted their ability to link customers with financial products, not just interest payments from taxes.

Autonomous AI agents pose a structural risk to deposit margins and interest margins if they allow customers to switch to more competitive offers easily, notes Deutsche Bank in a report on BBVA. The problem is that there are more and more alternatives, financial sources assure. In a world of zero interest rates, losing a few cents by keeping money idle represented a small opportunity cost.

Now it's easier and the sovereign debt of Spain, Italy, or France yields close to or more than 4% over 10 years and is considered a risk-free asset for the European Central Bank (ECB). The states are providing facilities. In Spain, individuals can purchase Treasury bonds directly and take advantage whenever yields in auctions increase their generosity.

Europe is also competing for the resources that are in banks. The new European investment account aims to channel the money that savers have idle in bank deposits into investments in key sectors of the European economy. In Spain, this figure of idle deposits approaches one trillion euros. The biggest structural risk is the continued financing of home savings through sovereign bonds and investment products, which could limit the growth of deposits over time, according to Barclays in its latest report on Spanish banking.

The threat has hit the stock prices. Along with the increase in sovereign debt yields, the threat of autonomous AI reducing passive margins has put pressure on European bank stocks, explained UBS in relation to Meta's Muse launch in the U.S. It's not a new debate. Concerns have been raised since early in the year, but it's important to consider the volume of household deposits receiving little or no interest - about eight trillion euros in the euro zone - which underpins the profitability of the sector.

UBS has studied the banking systems of European countries, and Spain sits among those with the least competitive deposit market where returns may be low without harming banks. Spain is among those being watched most closely. Spanish banks hold a higher volume of non-interest-bearing deposits than the rest of Europe. Analysts question what will happen to this money if AI agents make it possible for owners to jump to a risk-free alternative simply by asking for it.

CaixaBank and Unicaja lead the ranking, receiving no euro from 73% of their deposits, according to UBS data. Sabadell only remunerates 40% and Bankinter 43%. Santander and BBVA do not publish these figures, but the average cost they spend on their private customers' deposits in Spain is 0.58%, and both have touted their ability to link customers with financial products, not just interest payments from taxes.

Autonomous AI agents pose a structural risk to deposit margins and interest margins if they allow customers to switch to more competitive offers easily, Deutsche Bank notes in a report on BBVA. The problem is that there are more and more alternatives. In a world of zero interest rates, losing a few cents by keeping money idle represented a small opportunity cost.

Now it's easier and the sovereign debt of Spain, Italy, or France yields close to or more than 4% over 10 years and is considered a risk-free asset for the European Central Bank (ECB). The biggest structural risk is the continued financing of home savings through sovereign bonds and investment products, which could limit the growth of deposits over time, according to Barclays in its latest report on Spanish banking.