La euforia antes del desplome

Capital markets are currently experiencing an extraordinary moment, with American capitalism moving in a state of overwhelming euphoria, driven by artificial intelligence, abundant financing, and growth expectations that are difficult to contain. The magnitude, speed, and dynamism of this phenomenon are admirable. However, behind the enthusiasm, excesses begin to surface, inviting caution.

Financial history has taught us that the celebrated statement "this time is different" rarely withstands the test of time. Economic laws remain in effect: investments must generate profitability, interest must be paid, and extraordinary profits will eventually be eroded by competition, and every euphoric phase eventually confronts reality.

The key difference is that this time it is on a much larger scale. An intriguing article in The Economist's Schumpeter section, published on September 30th, highlights the scale of this surge. The year has seen a series of global records: the largest initial public offering with SpaceX, the largest equity increase for Google, the largest venture capital round for OpenAI, Broadcom's largest private debt issuance, Amazon's largest bond issuance, and SoftBank's largest issuance of junk bonds.

The list goes on. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF has become the first to exceed a billion dollars in assets; Berkshire Hathaway holds the largest corporate cash reserve; Nvidia announced the largest stock buyback program and corporate takeovers of huge scale, such as the $110 billion deal between Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery, reflecting investor appetite.

At the same time, new markets emerge, from prediction markets to computing power. According to the article, the current investor boom, measured relative to gross domestic product, surpasses the sum of the internet and railway bubbles. The problem does not lie solely in the volume of capital mobilized, but also in the distance that can open between expectations and results.

The IPO prospectus of Anthropic illustrates this contradiction: its revenues have multiplied by 12, a spectacular growth, but the company also records billions in losses and commitments amounting to hundreds of millions. Added to this are the interest rates of U.S. public debt, which are at their highest levels in two decades. The cost of money matters, especially when valuations depend on uncertain future profits.

In this landscape, The Economist warns: "Better keep going as long as the machine still works." The image reminds one of the Titanic: the orchestra continues playing while the ship advances towards an increasingly difficult fate to ignore. In a recent expert roundtable, it was argued that the probability of a short-term crisis in capital markets reached 95%.

This is a risk estimate, not a certainty, but it deserves attention. Signals of a cycle change may include a major AI company losing access to new financing or being unable to meet its interest payments; technological advances or Chinese competition triggering a price war that destroys corporate margins; companies imposing explicit and widespread spending limits on artificial intelligence use; expected revenues being insufficient to cover costs; or the cancellation of large-scale projects or duplicate orders for chips.

A particularly revealing sign would be that growth rates continue to be positive, but begin to slow down. Markets usually react not only to deteriorating results, but also when they fail to meet excessively ambitious expectations. For now, however, there is an element that invites caution. As of the fourth quarter, analysts are revising upward their earnings forecasts, an unusual circumstance.

Until this trend continues, markets could maintain their momentum for several more months. The conclusion is clear: euphoria may persist, but it does not eliminate risk. In a record investment environment, abundant financing, and extraordinary expectations, it is important to distinguish between real growth and promises of future profitability.

The machinery is still working; the question is how long it can do so without costs, competition, and profitability demands imposing their limits.