Intel Stock Has Moved an Average of 16% the Day After Its Last 3 Reports. Should You Buy Before the Next One?
The chipmaker beat its own forecast all three times. Why did the stock fall twice?
Intel's stock has exhibited a notable pattern following its quarterly reports over the past three months, with an average daily movement of about 16%. This trend is particularly intriguing as the company has consistently beaten its own financial forecasts in each of these reports. In January, Intel reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $13.7 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.15, both surpassing the company's own outlook. Despite this positive performance, the stock still experienced a 17% decline the following day.
The pattern continued into April, when Intel reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of $13.6 billion, which surpassed the midpoint of its forecast by $1.4 billion. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.29 also exceeded management's expectations, leading to a 24% surge in the stock price. However, the stock fell by 8% on the day after July's report, despite the company posting second-quarter revenue of $16.1 billion, which was up 25% year-over-year and $1.8 billion above the midpoint of its forecast.
The most recent report for the third quarter shows a more subdued outlook, with revenue midpoint sitting only about 1% above the second quarter, and adjusted earnings per share forecast at $0.38, down from $0.42. Intel also raised its 2026 capital spending outlook to over $20 billion, which CFO David Zinsner said was significantly higher than expectations entering the year. This 1% slowdown in revenue growth is a significant change from the recent upward trajectory.
Given this pattern, Intel's fourth-quarter outlook on October 29 will be critical. CFO Zinsner indicated that the timing of Intel's supply growth may be more skewed toward the end of Q3 and into Q4, particularly for servers. If this supply growth materializes as expected, it could lead to revenue growth in the fourth quarter, potentially driving the stock price up.
However, with Intel's stock already trading at around 44 times expected earnings for 2027, the company appears to be counting on a return to growth rather than relying on its recent performance. For now, the consensus seems to be cautious, recommending to wait for Intel's fourth-quarter forecast before making any significant moves.
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