British Pound: BoE tightening expectations questioned – BBH
Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman notes GBP/USD is weaker on broad Dollar strength, even as UK PMI beats and supports expectations for a 25 bps BOE hike to 4.00% in November. He argues the swaps market is overpricing future tightening, citing below-capacity growth, weak real wages, a near-neutral policy rate and likely fiscal restraint as headwinds for the Pound.
British Pound (GBP) faces challenges amid increased expectations for a Bank of England (BOE) rate hike, according to Brown Brothers Harriman analyst Elias Haddad. Despite a UK PMI beating market forecasts, headwinds loom large. Haddad argues the swaps market overestimates future tightening due to factors like below-capacity growth, weak real wages, a near-neutral policy rate, and likely fiscal restraint.
GBP/USD is down as a result of broad USD strength, while EUR/GBP hit a three-month low. The composite PMI climbed to its highest level in eight months, but Haddad sees potential for less GBP strength due to capacity constraints, stagnant real wages, the policy rate nearing its neutral range, and upcoming fiscal tightening following the October budget.
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