Asian shares wobble as tech rout boosts bonds, dents rate hike bets

On October 23, Asian shares experienced a decline as worries surrounding the substantial funding requirements of artificial intelligence (AI) impacted the technology sector, resulting in the most significant single-day rally in U.S. Treasuries in over three years. Investors rushed to seek refuge in sovereign bonds and safe-haven currencies.

Markets also reduced their expectations for further policy tightening from the United States Federal Reserve, leading to the cancellation of nearly a quarter-point rate hike for 2027. The probability of a December rate rise fell to 85%, despite rising oil prices. Brent crude reached a five-month high of $114 a barrel on October 23, as concerns grew about potential energy supply disruptions due to Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia, which could further escalate the conflict in the Middle East.

Asian markets suffered, with the MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares excluding Japan dropping 0.3% on October 23, marking a weekly loss of 2.7% and a fourth consecutive week of decline. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.3%, and was down 5% for the week. South Korea's KOSPI declined 1.7%, on track for a 4.3% weekly drop, with memory chipmaker SK Hynix falling 2.5% on the day.

Taiwan's stock market was closed due to a typhoon, while China's mainland blue chip index slid 1.1% to its lowest level since July 2025, marking a 20% decrease from its late June peak.

The Nasdaq dropped more than 2% on Wall Street, mainly due to Meta's first cash outflow in over a decade, resulting from AI expenditures and a two-for-one share split to raise capital for AI-related investments. Tesla shares fell 3.1% as the electric car manufacturer reduced its capital spending plans for 2026. The question remains whether selling will intensify or if the markets will reverse course, as there is no fresh catalyst to absorb the deteriorating price action.

Meanwhile, safe-haven US Treasuries saw a surge in money flowing in, causing yields to plunge, with the benchmark 10-year yield dropping over 19 basis points, the largest drop since March 2023. The sell-off in French bonds led to a 6 basis point increase in their benchmark yield to 5.0601%, the highest level since 2002. Despite the ongoing sell-off, experts are uncertain if the US 10-year yield will continue to drop below the 5% level, as inflation, fiscal deficit, and the AI boom still pose challenges.

Moreover, the approaching US midterm elections could pose additional risks, but market calm in risk assets is necessary for a potential rebound.