Arbitrage Alert: Building a Cross-Exchange Prediction Market Monitor with Python
Introduction Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi provide real-time probabilities for future events. On October 18, 2024, they priced the Fed's October rate decision four percentage points apart: Polymarket implied a 92% chance of a 25bp cut, while Kalshi showed 88%. Such discrepancies create arbitrage opportunities, but manually monitoring multiple platforms is impractical. In this…
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