Zwischenwahlen: Wahlforscher hält Trump-Debakel für möglich – „Unmut der Wähler schlimmer als unter Biden“
Vor den Zwischenwahlen sieht Wahlforscher Phillips die Demokraten im Repräsentantenhaus und erstmals auch im Senat vorn. Die Republikaner hätten einen großen Fehler zu spät bemerkt.
Despite the odds, political prognosticator Logan Phillips has begun to believe that the Democrats may secure a majority in the U.S. Senate during the upcoming midterm elections on November 3rd. Back in 2024, Phillips, the founder of the "Race to the White House" forecasting portal, gave the Democrats roughly a 30 percent chance of taking control of the chamber.
"I received quite a bit of pushback for that," Phillips told the Wall Street Journal. "People found it too optimistic." However, recent polling shows the likelihood of the Democrats winning the Senate majority on election day has risen to around 72 percent, according to Phillips' model - a "dramatic turnaround" from his original prediction.
To secure the Senate, Democrats would need to flip four seats, and only about one-third of Senate seats are up for grabs. Phillips acknowledges this as "a huge feat." The forecasting portal, known for its highly accurate predictions, has long been forecasting a "blue wave" or Democratic takeover. With this in mind, the probability of Democrats gaining a majority in the House of Representatives is now over 88 percent.
Written by urgent.news from Handelsblatt's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
