Will the Iran war resume before the US and Israeli elections?

Recent developments have raised fears that the US and Israel could resume strikes against Iran before their respective elections on October 27 and November 3. Two US aircraft carrier strike groups are currently in the region, with another on the way, and families of US government personnel have been instructed to leave Saudi Arabia. Israel has reportedly conducted a military sortie near the Iranian border, increasing tensions in the Gulf.

US President Donald Trump had previously stated that he wouldn't renew attacks against Iran before the midterms, but recent reports suggest Washington and Israel are preparing for renewed military operations. The US State Department ordered non-emergency government employees and their families to leave Saudi Arabia, though the order reportedly applies only to Saudi Arabia and is linked to threats from Yemen's Houthis.

Iranian officials view a renewed conflict as a real possibility, according to Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran programme at the Middle East Institute in Washington. He suggests that political considerations, particularly in Israel, could influence decisions about escalating hostilities. Iranian intelligence indicates a high likelihood of an attack before the Israeli election, and Iran's national security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, has warned that Tehran could retaliate against US interests, including data centers and undersea cables, if fighting resumes.

While some officials believe a strike before the midterms is unlikely, others suggest that Trump could still decide to resume military action. The US and Israeli militaries have reportedly drawn up plans for renewed strikes against Iran's energy, nuclear, missile, and drone arsenals, aiming to force Tehran into diplomatic concessions. If resumed, the consequences could be devastating for the region, and Iran has warned of retaliation against Israel, Gulf states, and US interests.