Titan analysis shows FuelEU pooling propelled liquefied biomethane demand

Titan, a Molgas company, has evaluated the impact of LNG, liquefied biomethane (LBM/bio-LNG) and e-methane on compliance with FuelEU Maritime, focusing on their pooling mechanism's performance. They used an 8,000 TEU container ship operating between Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, and Algeciras, consuming about 18,000 metric tons of LNG-equivalent fuel annually. Three scenarios examined were fuel oil baseline, grey LNG, and a 30% LBM blend.

Using FuelEU Maritime's default well-to-wake emissions factor, the analysis showed that the oil-fueled vessel was short in 2025, with penalty costs rising from approximately €2.2M to €17M by 2040 as targets become stricter. With LNG, the ship achieves overcompliance of 11,700 tCO₂eq/year in 2025 and remains compliant through 2035.

Starting in 2040, a 15% LBM blend ensures compliance, and any additional LBM creates surplus pooling value. A 30% LBM blend can boost the surplus to over 34,000 tCO₂eq/year, translating to roughly €3.4M to €5.1M in gross transferable compliance value annually. These figures used the default well-to-wake emissions factor and the €2,400 penalty rate for VLSFO energy equivalent.

The net commercial benefit for customers depends on agreed market compliance values and the cost premium of LBM compared to fossil LNG. Titan can tailor these models for individual ships and supply scenarios. According to Grégoire Hartig, Commercial Director at Titan, pooling transforms over-achieving emissions targets into a tradable asset, bridging maritime transport's market dynamics with stringent greenhouse gas regulations.

Grégoire Hartig, Commercial Director at Titan, commented: “Pooling effectively converts over-achieving emissions performance targets into a tradable or allocatable asset. This bridges the market and competition-based nature of maritime transport with the implementation of stringent greenhouse gas regulation. This has, in our view, proven to be a very efficient way to ensure the active participation and alignment of all stakeholders.”

Furthermore, the share of LBM in total delivered methane volume increased from 6.5% to 19.1% between 2024 and 2025, largely due to ship operators striving for FuelEU Maritime overcompliance. LBM prices in 2026 have been high, and Titan expects an improvement in the second half of the year. However, Hartig emphasized that 2025 was the first year where FuelEU pools were implemented, and the role of LBM and its impact on compliance values will become clearer over time.

Maro Varvate, Commercial Manager at Titan, added: “FuelEU provides a strategic, practical, and cost-effective route to decarbonisation and fleet renewal, considering the lifecycle of maritime asset investments. If ship operators pool their own ships, they can strategically target and sequence decarbonisation investments, improving selected vessels while maintaining fleet-wide compliance.

This targeted approach also makes sense from a fuel supply perspective, enabling efficient production and supply of LNG, especially LBM, to one ship at one location while sharing benefits across the wider shipping service. This also allows demand to incrementally scale as profits from over-compliant vessels are realized.”