Overdependence on gold, cocoa leaves Ghana exposed to changes in global commodity prices – ISSER

The Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER) has warned that Ghana's heavy reliance on gold and cocoa leaves it vulnerable to fluctuations in global commodity prices and production conditions. In 2025, the country's external position improved significantly, with export earnings rising much faster than imports.

Merchandise trade surpluses expanded from US$3.8 billion to US$13.8 billion, while the current account surplus grew from US$1.6 billion to US$9.4 billion. International reserves increased, bolstering the nation's foreign exchange position, and the cedi appreciated against major currencies.

However, ISSER's 2025 State of the Ghanaian Economy Report highlighted that these improvements were heavily reliant on primary commodities, particularly gold and cocoa. Minerals made up 68.2% of merchandise exports, indicating a continued focus on a limited range of products. While non-traditional exports grew by 30.7%, Ghana's export base remained relatively undiversified. The report cautioned that a strong trade surplus does not necessarily mean the economy has become more diversified or internationally competitive.

ISSER called for export diversification through the expansion of manufactured and processed goods to reduce dependence on commodities. They advocated for increased domestic value addition, emphasizing the need to strengthen processing capacity and linkages between agriculture, mining, and domestic industries. Lastly, they urged the country to build external resilience by maintaining reserve buffers, enhancing export competitiveness, and reducing vulnerability to commodity price fluctuations.