Oil prices jump on Middle East worries as U.S., Israel reportedly weigh fresh Iran strikes

Oil prices surged past the $110 mark on October 21, driven by Middle East supply concerns and threats to oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. Brent crude futures jumped over $1 to reach around $110 per barrel, while WTI Crude futures also gained more than a dollar, trading at approximately $99 per barrel.

Vessels have faced attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, with at least 18 incidents reported over two weeks, according to shiptracker Kpler. Iranian attacks have now extended to the Gulf of Oman, threatening loading activities outside the Arab Gulf and ship-to-ship transfers that have supported Middle East loadings amid the ongoing conflict. The Houthis have claimed responsibility for attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu, Shaybah oilfield, Riyadh, and Abha airports.

The oil price rise comes after a drop the previous day, following Iran's president engaging in mediation efforts with Pakistan's army chief in Tehran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that Iran has not received a response from Saudi Arabia or the Houthis to its offer to help broker peace talks.

Analysts from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have expressed uncertainty about the conflict's development and the potential for higher oil prices due to supply disruptions. JPMorgan cited several economic thresholds that the US administration had crossed, while Goldman Sachs outlined a scenario in which oil prices could reach $120 a barrel if attacks on vessels intensify. Conversely, if exports return to normal, prices are expected to move back towards $80 a barrel.