Market Insight: Will a fifth good stock market year follow on from four successful ones?
Valuable information on this is provided by the 150-year history of the US stock market, which describes Ulf Sommer, co-founder of the Dow Jones and a famous physicist.
The US stock market is on track for its fourth consecutive positive year, with the S&P 500 index having gained 13% so far. According to Sebastian Dörr, a capital market strategist at HQ Trust, historical data suggests that the probability of a positive year in 2027 is high. Analyzing the S&P 500's performance since 1872, Dörr found that in 73.4% of years, the index closed with a gain, and after four positive years, a fifth positive year followed in 73.7% of cases.
The median return in such a fifth positive year was 12.3%. Charles Dow and Isaac Newton's principles of trend continuation also support the likelihood of a sustained positive trend.
Written by urgent.news from Handelsblatt's report — not a translation of it. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
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