Macro pesa e Bradesco perde fôlego no 3º tri

The third quarter (3rd tri) of the macro and Bradesco saw weak performance according to market expectations. The company reported a profit of R$7.1 billion, a growth of just 0.8% compared to the previous triad and 14.6% year-on-year. The numbers were in line with consensus forecasts, albeit described as "a bad consensus" by a sellside analyst.

The return on equity (ROE) stood at 15.6%, or 16.1% when recent capital increase of R$10 billion was excluded. The ROE was relatively steady at 16.2% in the second tri. Market observers believe the growth in profitability may be waning, with maintaining the quarterly profit growth commitment becoming more challenging.

Credit growth proved to be less robust, expanding by 1.1% sequentially and 11.1% compared to the same period in 2025. The credit portfolio reached 61.2% of the total loans of Bradesco in the tri, up from 59.5% in the same period of 2025. These lines are typically less profitable, contributing to a slower increase in the margin with clients: 1.5% in the tri and 10.1% year-on-year. The margin of post-PDD (Periodic Depreciation and Depletion) operations fell to 4.2%.

Total delinquency above 90 days increased to 4.6%, up from 4.3% in June and 4.1% in September of 2025. In the retail portfolio, the rate rose to 5.8%, up from 5.5% in the previous triad and 5.4% a year ago. For SMEs (Small and Medium-sized Enterprises), delinquency reached 4.9%, compared to 4.4% in September and 3.7% in June.

As in the previous triad, part of the increase in delinquencies can be attributed to those lines with the FGI (Guaranteed Fund I) and FGO (Guaranteed Fund II) funds. The funds are released between 120 and 180 days after the credit is considered delinquent, and the unpaid amounts enter the delinquency indices during this period. However, rural portfolio issues also impacted the retail portfolio, according to the bank.

Moreover, Bradesco resumed raising provisions, up 7% in the tri and 24% year-on-year. Positive balance sheet data included cost control, with operating expenses falling 0.7% in the tri and 1% year-on-year. Revenue from service provision increased by 4.2% in the tri and 3.1% year-on-year. As a result, the operational efficiency index improved to 45%.

After the capital increase, the equity capital ratio rose from 11.3% to 12.1%. An analyst commented that the capitalization might help improve the bank's profit in the future, but for now, Bradesco is among the companies most dependent on a good electoral outcome.

The insurance company's results were also weaker. The revenue from insurance, pre-financing, and capitalization operations, a combined account including premiums minus losses, amounted to R$5.6 billion in the third tri, a 9% decrease in the tri and 2% year-on-year. The net profit was R$2.8 billion, 2% lower than the first tri and 14% higher than the same period in 2025. The ROE of the insurer was 22% in the third tri, compared to 22.8% in the previous tri.