Indian rupee traders weigh Jio IPO flows against oil price risks

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is expected to open flat on Thursday, with traders closely monitoring flows from Jio Platforms IPO and weighing the impact of oil price fluctuations. The currency is currently trading in the 94.44-94.50 range, up from around 96.60-96.70 over the past eight sessions. This improvement can be attributed to the Reserve Bank of India's measures, active intervention, and the Jio Platforms IPO-related flows on Wednesday.

The rupee has surpassed the 94.70 level, a key technical hurdle, leading to unwinding of long-dollar positions, according to a treasury official at a bank. Importers may find it attractive to buy dollars under these conditions, given the high oil prices. However, the anticipation of ongoing RBI intervention and supportive flows could make traders hesitant to rush into the trade.

The Jio Platforms IPO garnered significant demand on its opening day, with institutional investors leading the way. Although foreign investors can utilize sell/buy FX swaps to control IPO-related flows without influencing the spot market dollar supply, some of these flows do impact the spot market, according to bankers. The recent spike in oil prices, driven by additional Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia and the United States' recent order for diplomats and family members to leave its missions in the Kingdom, poses a significant threat to the rupee's recovery.