Freedom Broker downgrades Barrick Mining stock rating on reduced estimates

Freedom Broker has reduced its rating on Barrick Mining (NYSE:B) stock from Buy to Hold, citing reduced estimates for the company. The brokerage lowered its price target for Barrick shares to $46.00 from $54.00. The firm also revised its third-quarter estimates for the mining company, predicting revenue of $5.13 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $3.46 billion, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.81, which is a 10% and 8% reduction respectively from previous forecasts.

This move aligns with a broader trend, as 7 out of 9 analysts have reduced their earnings estimates for the upcoming period. Barrick's 2027 adjusted EBITDA is now estimated at $16.1 billion, down from $18.8 billion, indicating more conservative operating expectations. The brokerage highlighted Barrick's stock trades at around 10.0 times 2027 earnings, which is lower than Newmont and Agnico Eagle.

Despite this, the company's adjusted EPS is expected to rise by 33% in 2028. Barrick’s current P/E ratio is 10.43, with an 8% free cash flow yield. The analyst identified potential catalysts for growth, such as the planned North American business IPO, development of the Fourmile project, Lumwana expansion, and recovery at Loulo-Gounkoto.

However, the stock offers a volatility-adjusted return score below Freedom Broker’s Buy threshold, leading to the downgrade to Hold. Barrick's initial public offering in North America might be delayed until January 2027 due to outstanding formalities, although the company still aims to finalize the IPO by the end of the year.