Die Wohnungsknappheit treibt die Menschen aus den grossen Städten. Doch wie lange noch?

The housing shortage is driving people out of large cities, but the question remains: how long will this continue? Zurich households are moving out to the surrounding countryside, increasing the demand for real estate. However, this trend could also reverse. Property owners should be aware of this development. Zurich is attracting many people, particularly from abroad.

Between 2021 and 2025, nearly 38,000 net new residents arrived from abroad. Internally, the city lost around 21,500 inhabitants to other cantons during the same period, the largest outflow ever. This development has significant implications for the real estate market. Due to the scarcity and high cost of housing in Zurich, many households are moving to the surrounding areas, benefiting not only neighboring municipalities but also regions such as the Aargau counties of Baden and Mutschellen, and the Thurgau's Thurtal.

A UBS analysis shows a chain reaction: initially, households move out of the city to regions like Glatttal or Zimmerberg, where rents are rising and housing is scarce. This further pushes the search towards the outskirts of Zurich or to Winterthur, and then to neighboring cantons. The numbers are striking. The Aargau region of Mutschellen, for example, saw a net inflow of nearly 3,800 people from 2021 to 2025 compared to Zurich.

Baden and Thurgau each saw around 3,500 and 2,500 net inflows, respectively. Even Aarau and Schaffhausen saw significant influxes. This development is not limited to Zurich. The cantons of Geneva and Waadt lost net inhabitants to neighboring regions over the past five years. Winners include the canton of Freiburg, which has an annual population growth rate of 1.4 to 1.6 percent, placing it among the top-performing cantons in Switzerland.

For real estate investors, this is currently a positive development, as it keeps demand for rental housing high, even in locations outside major centers. The UBS expects the vacancy rate in well-served rural areas and small to medium-sized centers to remain high, meaning housing will not become even more scarce. However, rents are expected to rise in the short term.

Between 2021 and 2025, the Swiss population grew by nearly 460,000 people, corresponding to around 240,000 additional households. During the same period, only about 220,000 new dwellings were built, failing to keep up with demand. The population growth is now mainly driven by immigration. However, this could slow down in the longer term as Europe's workforce is shrinking.

Less population growth means that the demand for housing will not decrease commensurately. People are aging, and more individuals are living alone or with a partner, leading the UBS to expect a 18 percent increase in households nationwide by 2055. The demand for housing will thus outpace population growth. However, where these additional households are created matters.

According to the BfS's reference scenario, the number of households in cantons like Lucerne, St. Gallen, Waadt, Wallis, and Thurgau could increase by at least 25 percent by 2055, while in Bern, Glarus, Jura, Neuenburg, Appenzell Ausserrhoden, and Schaffhausen, it would only rise by around 5 percent. Schaffhausen, currently one of the beneficiaries of migration trends, may see its population growth slow down in the long run if housing construction picks up, as the UBS suggests.

Shortage of new dwellings and slower population growth could put pressure on rental income and property values, especially in poorly served rural areas. Switzerland has grown by 42 percent since the early 1980s. Interactive maps show how strongly the population has grown in each community and where the foreign population has increased the most.

A handful of large projects bring hundreds of new homes to the market, while immigration is declining. A study highlights where families with average incomes live best, with the decisive factor being living costs. In Aarau, these are 28 percent lower than in Zurich.