Can Netanyahu bomb Iran as a caretaker PM? How US and Israeli elections could affect war

As the United States and Israel prepare for crucial elections, speculation is mounting over the possibility of military action against Iran. The Israeli general election is set for October 27, while Americans will cast their votes in midterms on November 3. These elections pose significant challenges and opportunities for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the US President, Donald Trump, respectively.

In Israel, the current political landscape is in limbo, with neither Netanyahu nor his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, holding a majority. Despite this deadlock, Netanyahu could still order military strikes on Iran, as his status as caretaker prime minister allows him to maintain control over key decisions, including those pertaining to the war.

However, a coalition government must be formed before any major actions can be taken, and opposition leader Yair Lapid has suggested that such an action should not be taken to "fundamentally change reality".

Netanyahu's stance on Iran remains firm, with opposition leaders generally favoring a military response and opposing the establishment of a Palestinian state. Meanwhile, in the United States, voters will elect a new Congress and choose governors in various states. President Trump retains his authority as commander-in-chief, meaning he can initiate military action at any time. He has indicated that the US would refrain from attacking Iran prior to the midterm elections but has not ruled out strikes afterward.

Nevertheless, a defeat for Trump's Republicans could diminish his political options, particularly if high energy prices are linked to the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf energy exports. A Democratic-controlled Congress might also investigate the war, potentially casting a shadow over the administration. Finally, US military assistance, sanctions on Iran, and Washington's relationships with Gulf governments may all be subjected to increased scrutiny.