Brazil's energy course may hold after election, but Amazon at risk

Brazil's future energy strategy might not be as drastically altered as environmentalists anticipate if the right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro secures victory in Sunday's presidential election. Under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's administration, there have been notable advancements in oil discovery and exploration, marking a shift from some leftist regional allies.

Both candidates' parties showcased alignment during the debate over a critical minerals law, emphasizing domestic value addition earlier this year. However, a potential divergence could emerge concerning the Amazon. According to Brazilian economist Monica de Bolle, the enforcement of existing environmental laws might weaken under Bolsonaro's leadership, reminiscent of his father's administration, which oversaw the loss of over 11 million acres of rainforest.

Moreover, a nearly $3 billion takeover of a Brazilian rare earth mining firm by USA Rare Earths, in which the US government holds a stake, remains uncertain. Lula staunchly opposed this deal, and if he retains power, he is likely to utilize a new law to modify the terms of the agreement, as per de Bolle's assessment.