Ars updates the status

Since 2014, the United States has had no medium-lift rockets, defined as having a lift capacity of 2 to 20 metric tons. Orbital Sciences Corporation's Antares rocket, which debuted a decade ago, is the last of its kind. Four upcoming rockets are set to bring new medium-lift capacity to the United States, all with engines built in the U.S. by their respective manufacturers.

SpaceX's imminent retirement of the Falcon 9 will intensify the competition, as commercial satellite operators are uncertain about which launch vehicles will be available in the 2027 to 2030 timeframe. Ars Technica provides a guide to the medium-lift space race in the United States, along with predictions on when the rockets may debut.

The Nova rocket, currently in development in Kent, Washington, is arguably the most ambitious, aiming for full reusability and an innovative upper stage thruster design. However, its launch target of early 2027 is considered optimistic. Meanwhile, Relativity Space's Terran R, based in Long Beach, California, has gained funding and experienced morale improvements under the leadership of Eric Schmidt.

With a partially reusable first stage, the rocket's lift capacity is closer to 20 metric tons. Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket, with a lift capacity between 8.5 and 15 metric tons, is making progress despite some technical challenges. The upcoming launch order is Nova, Terran R, and Neutron, though predictions are uncertain.