Venezuela Earthquake Death Toll May Be Far Higher Than Official Count, Analyses Find
The government of Venezuela says the death toll from the twin earthquakes was 6,509. But a New York Times investigation, based on estimates from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Times’ own review of satellite imagery and housing records, concludes that the official figure may be a severe undercount. In stark contrast to the […]
A New York Times investigation has found that the official death toll from the 2026 Venezuela earthquakes is likely far lower than the real number of casualties. The Venezuelan government reported 6,509 deaths, but the Times' analysis suggests the true toll could be much higher. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimates the median death count at around 53,000, with an 81% chance that the actual figure exceeds 10,000.
This significant discrepancy arises from the lack of an up-to-date official census, which the USGS addresses using the LandScan model. This model projects recent census data to estimate population distribution, drawing on United Nations figures and various variables like land use, roads, and proximity to cities. In hard-hit La Guaira state, 16 public housing towers collapsed, each comprising 12 residential floors and eight apartments per floor.
The Times' analysis, based on floor plans and site observations, estimates that around 5,200 people lived in these towers, accounting for approximately 80% of the government's nationwide death toll. This figure suggests that many victims were likely trapped inside the collapsed buildings at the time of the earthquakes, with little to no escape time.
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