Trump's push for Israel-Saudi relations faces obstacles amid elections, Houthi attacks - analysis

US President Donald Trump suggested on October 16 that Saudi Arabia should accept Israeli assistance to combat the Houthis in Yemen. Trump expressed confidence that Israel would be willing to help and even hinted that Saudi-Israeli normalization could be a possibility, possibly more than ever before. However, the exact nature of the proposed partnership remains unclear.

Yemen's Houthis have launched a series of attacks on Saudi Arabia, targeting airports, oil facilities, and shipping. One such attack on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport resulted in 13 deaths and raised concerns over the kingdom's capacity to protect its critical infrastructure.

While Saudi Arabia has had previous contacts with Israel regarding the Houthi threat, public opinion in Saudi Arabia seems strongly against any formal normalization with Israel, particularly after the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks. Dr. Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, noted that Saudi Arabia has not yet agreed to accept Israeli military assistance, citing public opposition.

Since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war, Saudi Arabia and Israel had been inching closer to a possible U.S.-brokered normalization agreement. However, the ongoing conflict and its impact on the Arab world have complicated the prospect of formal relations. Dr. Cyril Widdershoven, a senior advisor at Blue Water Strategy, highlighted that Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 development plan, which heavily relies on foreign investment, infrastructure expansion, and its reputation as a stable destination for international business, is threatened by the ongoing crisis.

The economic consequences of the conflict are already being felt, with the postponement of Saudi Arabia's flagship Future Investment Initiative conference until 2027 due to security concerns. Military considerations further complicate the situation, as Saudi Arabia's efforts to combat the Houthis have been largely unsuccessful, and direct Israeli involvement could escalate the conflict by provoking responses from Iran and other regional actors.

Despite these challenges, Saudi Arabia is seeking assistance from regional partners, including Egypt and the UAE. Egypt's National Defense Council agreed to support Saudi Arabia in defending against Houthi attacks, while the UAE and Turkey have also expressed interest in cooperating with Riyadh. However, any military assistance from Turkey would likely require parliamentary approval.