Russian satellite’s close approach to European spacecraft highlights orbital risks

On October 18, a Russian satellite, Cosmos-2612, came within 100 meters of a European commercial spacecraft, ICEYE-X36, which supports Ukraine’s military efforts, according to orbital tracking data. This close approach has raised concerns about Moscow’s activities in space. The Russian satellite, launched in April, altered its course late September to eventually align with the same orbit as ICEYE-X36, operated by Finland’s ICEYE under a contract with the United States.

Space security specialist Clayton Swope noted there was no benign reason for such proximity, describing it as "unnecessary." Such close approaches can potentially be used to inspect, monitor, or interfere with other satellites. While Russian satellites have approached foreign spacecraft before, several factors in this case stood out, making the incident particularly concerning.

The Russian satellite deliberately adjusted its orbit to match the iceye satellite’s orbit. ICEYE’s satellite constellation provides crucial imagery and space-tracking data that aids Ukraine in its war with Russia. The US Space Force accused Russia of fuel-intensive maneuvers in May to bring four military satellites close to a Western commercial satellite used by Ukraine.

ICEYE’s satellites utilize radar technology, which can capture images of the Earth’s surface at night and through clouds, making them invaluable for military intelligence. The US Space Force suspects Russia has launched satellites to test technologies for intercepting or disrupting other spacecraft. However, it is impossible to confirm whether Cosmos-2612 carried a weapon, according to Swope.

The incident should be seen in the broader context of Russia's efforts to challenge Western space capabilities. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has claimed that Western commercial satellites supporting Kyiv are indirectly participating in the conflict. A Russian foreign ministry official warned in 2022 at the UN that "quasi-civilian infrastructure" could become a legitimate target for retaliation.

As of Monday morning, Cosmos-2612 had moved away from ICEYE-X36, again separated by several kilometers. Analysts at the US-based ISR Institute predict another close approach between Russian satellites and an ICEYE spacecraft could occur in the coming weeks.