RBI puts rate cuts on ice

Mumbai - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decided against rate cuts earlier this month during the monetary policy review, despite rising price pressures dominating discussions. Governor Sanjay Malhotra warned against generalised inflation risks, noting that 37% of commodities in the consumer basket had inflation above 4% in August, up from 20% in March.

Core inflation increased from 3.9% in July to 4.2% in August, driven by strong momentum of 0.5%. Malhotra indicated that rate cuts are off the table in the near term, with policy action limited to a rate hike or a pause. Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta stated that inflation is currently driven mostly by external supply-side shocks, with no signs of it becoming entrenched or impacting inflation expectations.

However, with projections suggesting headline inflation could reach the upper tolerance limit of 6%, monetary policy's lagging effect was emphasized. External members acknowledged the inflation challenge but voted against a change in stance, citing uncertain geopolitical and trade policy factors. MPC member Saugata Bhattacharya expressed concerns about India's external balance, while Indranil Bhattacharyya warned of potential inflation pressures due to strong demand and supply-side factors, urging a rate hike.