Rail Traffic SURGE: Why Intermodal Volume is Climbing

U.S. intermodal volume surged 12.6% year-over-year in week 41, according to the Association of American Railroads. This rise in intermodal traffic is driven by high diesel fuel prices and tight truck capacity, which have led shippers to shift freight from trucks to rail. Overall U.S. rail traffic increased 8.5% for the week, which is a significant jump from the 5.5% average growth over the previous four weeks.

North American intermodal volume climbed 10.8% and total North American rail traffic grew 7.2%. This intermodal surge has caused downstream pressure on drayage capacity, as carriers like JB Hunt struggle to find enough drayage drivers to handle the increased container movement. The surge in intermodal traffic is creating pressure on last-mile infrastructure.

Railroad earnings reports will provide more insights into these trends. In the primary metal products segment, carload volumes jumped 25%, driven by higher demand in coke, metallic ores, and iron and steel scrap production. This is due to stronger steelmaking demand across blast furnace and electric arc mini-mill operations. Carload volumes for U.S. rose 3.5% for the week, with primary metals, chemicals, petroleum, agriculture and food products, and coal all in positive territory.

However, motor vehicles and parts saw a 5.6% gain, marking their second consecutive week of growth, though the segment remains slightly down for the year at -0.4%. Primary forest products were the only notable laggard, falling 10%. Excluding coal and grain, which are considered less economically sensitive, carload growth came in at 4%, compared to 3.5% including those categories.

Analysts expect double-digit earnings-per-share growth at most Class I railroads for the third quarter, with Norfolk Southern being the exception, projecting a 5.5% growth. Competitive shifts in domestic intermodal are reshaping the Eastern rail landscape. Following the announced discussions of a merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern, BNSF and CSX have unveiled new interline intermodal partnerships, pulling some domestic intermodal business away from Norfolk Southern toward CSX.