Possibility of Keeping Global Warming Below 1.5 Degrees Celsius Has Vanished

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has announced that the possibility of keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius has vanished. This conclusion comes from the 17th edition of their 2026 Emissions Gap Report, which examines the scenario where maximum warming by mid-century is limited to 1.7-1.8°C, with a 50% chance of returning to 1.5°C or below by 2100. Inger Andersen, UNEP executive director, stated that years of inaction on climate change has led to the loss of this critical window.

To meet the 1.5°C goal by 2100, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would need to be reduced by significant amounts. Specifically, emissions would have to decrease by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 69% by 2040 compared to 2025 levels. Additionally, carbon dioxide removal efforts would need to be scaled up throughout the century to reign in global warming.

However, the report highlights that even full implementation of each country's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would only reduce emissions by 5-8% by 2030 and 11-15% by 2035 compared to 2025 levels. This would only push global warming to 2.6°C, well above the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting the rise to well below 2°C and striving for 1.5°C.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed grave concern over the findings, stating that the world is already on track for overshooting the 1.5-degree limit. He warned of catastrophic consequences, including deadly floods, brutal heat waves, devastating wildfires, and growing economic inequalities. If current policies remain unchanged, warming would reach 2.8°C, far exceeding the Paris Agreement's objectives.

The report establishes new sectoral benchmarks to align with the lowest overshoot scenario (1.5°C). These include expanding renewable energy, reducing the energy intensity of primary energy consumption, decreasing reliance on coal, oil, and gas, and cutting methane emissions beyond 2030. The report emphasizes that while there are more opportunities than ever to accelerate action, it will take unprecedented efforts to keep global warming within the 1.5°C limit.