Oil is now flowing out of the Persian Gulf like before the Iran war. Why prices may still not come down anytime soon.

The Gulf region is exporting more oil now than it was before the US-Israeli conflict with Iran began on February 28, 2026, despite an increase in attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. According to data from energy analytics firm Kpler, Gulf countries shipped an average of 24.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in the week ending October 18, surpassing the prewar average of 23.3 million bpd.

This surge in exports is happening as Iran continues to launch attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, with at least 12 attacks occurring in the past week, as reported by the UK Maritime Trade Operations. In response, Gulf states are utilizing ship-to-ship transfers, where smaller vessels load crude in the Gulf and deliver it to large cargo ships waiting outside the Strait.

This workaround has mitigated some of the impact of Iran's actions, though exports through the Strait of Hormuz remain about a third lower than before the war. Saudi Arabia has also been exporting more oil through the Red Sea, but exports through the Strait of Hormuz still account for more than a third of the Gulf's total.