Morgan Stanley: Global Fuel Market Will Stay Tight Through Mid-2027
Global fuel markets are set to remain tight until at least the middle of next year as the second quarter of 2027 will see unusually high planned maintenance that refiners have deferred from this year, Morgan Stanley analysts say. Planned maintenance at refineries worldwide is set to peak at 3.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter of 2027, as many facilities will be overdue for…
Analysts at Morgan Stanley have warned that global fuel markets will remain tight through mid-2027 due to an unusually high amount of planned maintenance at refineries. Refineries worldwide are set to undergo 3.4 million barrels per day of maintenance in the second quarter of 2027, with many facilities already operating at maximum capacity.
This maintenance backlog is more than double the usual capacity taken offline for spring maintenance. The sharp drop in refinery utilization is expected to be a significant factor in the fuel market tightness. The International Energy Agency has also noted a shortage of diesel and gasoil, with supplies failing to meet demand in the current quarter.
While global diesel prices have eased from record highs, they remain significantly higher than the price of crude oil and their pre-crisis levels.
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