JD Vance and Marco Rubio Are Both Losing Ground in 2028 Race

Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are both experiencing a decline in their odds of securing the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, according to recent market data. Polymarket and Kalshi data show Vance's odds falling from roughly 53 percent in September to 43.8 percent on Tuesday, while Rubio's odds have dropped from 27.8 percent in August to 15.1 percent.

Kalshi's data indicates similar declines, with Vance's odds falling to 43 percent and Rubio's to 18 percent, with a combined trading volume of nearly $714 million.

Vance acknowledged over the weekend that he might not seek the presidency due to his role as a father and his wife's dislike of politics. The decline in their odds has raised questions about whether Republicans are becoming less certain about their post-President Donald Trump succession plan. However, economists caution against overinterpreting the shift, noting that some of the movement may have benefited other candidates with longer odds.

Economist Koleman Strumpf suggests that the lack of a clear beneficiary from the market movement may indicate that traders do not view Vance's comments as particularly consequential. Instead, political scientist Costas Panagopoulos believes that any Republican considering their prospects for 2028 may be cautious, particularly those closely linked to Trump's administration.

Panagopoulos suggests that the blame for the administration's shortcomings, including during the upcoming 2026 midterm elections, could impact the prospects of those associated with Trump.

Political scientists suggest that the decline in Vance and Rubio's odds could reflect a dispersal of confidence across a fragmented list of possibilities, rather than a decisive turn toward a new favorite. This uncertainty may stem from the lingering influence of their association with Trump, as well as the potential impact of the upcoming 2026 midterm elections on the Republican Party's electoral appeal.