India’s crude import bill surges 46% to $90.6 billion in April-September on elevated oil prices

India's crude oil import bill skyrocketed 46.3% to $90.6 billion during April-September, despite import volumes remaining nearly unchanged, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC). Brent crude was trading at approximately $110 a barrel as of October 21, driven by supply concerns over potential risks in the Red Sea and threats to oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia from Iran-backed Houthi rebels.

The import bill in September alone increased by 46.6% to $15.4 billion, while volumes rose by 6.8% to 21.7 million tonnes. Samer Hasn, a senior market analyst at XS.com, an online brokerage firm, notes that the market still anticipates risks of crude supply disruptions in West Asia due to ongoing escalations. The average price of India's crude basket reached $121.25 a barrel in October, up from $65.08 a year prior.

Analysts warn that persistently high landed prices could fuel the import bill, widen the current account deficit, and impact the overall economy. India, the world's third-largest crude importer, relies on imports to meet more than 85% of its needs, and a $1-per-barrel price hike could add up to $2 billion to the annual import bill.

Energy experts predict that crude prices will hover between $80 and $100 through 2027, with Brent averaging above $90 in 2026 and $86 next year, marking a $5 increase from earlier forecasts.