Goldman Sachs Raises Music Industry Growth Forecast for First Time in 3 Years

Goldman Sachs has for the first time in three years revised its growth forecast for the music industry, highlighting a shift from subscriber growth and streaming penetration to monetization as the industry matures. In 2025, the global recorded music market grew 6.4% to $31.7 billion in constant currency, exceeding Goldman's earlier expectations by 60 basis points.

By 2033, global recorded music retail revenue is projected to reach $121 billion, according to a separate MIDiA report. The next drivers of growth will be subscription price hikes, increased live events, and retail sales from physical, download, and digital resources, along with growth in synch revenues. Ad-supported streaming revenue is expected to slow by 1% to 3%.

Despite a slight decrease in subscription streaming growth to 8.8%, Goldman attributes this to streaming companies' efforts to expand in emerging markets with lower average revenue per user and discounted subscription deals. Physical sales surpassed expectations, surging 8% year-over-year, with vinyl demand rising nearly 14%, particularly among superfans in markets like Japan, South Korea, and the U.S. Goldman now anticipates global music industry retail revenue to grow by 6.7% in 2026 compared to 2025 and achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.8% between 2025 and 2035.

However, Goldman downgraded its expectations for synch and performance rights, citing slower recovery from the 2023 Hollywood writers' strike. Synch revenue fell 2.0% compared to Goldman's 6.0% growth forecast, while performance rights grew by only 0.3% instead of the expected 6.0%.