Regional crises and tensions: the view from Ankara

Regional crises and tensions: the view from Ankara reports on the complex geopolitical landscape that Turkey finds itself in. Iran's attempts to disrupt energy flow have shifted the focus of conflicts to Yemen, where Iran-backed Houthi militia have been attacking Saudi targets. With US President Trump facing mid-term elections, he is keenly interested in any Middle East flare-ups that could impact fuel prices.

Ankara is caught between multiple crises and lingering tensions. While Trump has not ordered a military response to the Houthis, he has asked Turkey to intervene on Saudi Arabia's behalf. Turkey is currently contemplating providing defensive support, such as protecting Saudi holy sites and economic infrastructure. Additionally, Türkiye is involved in the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, a mutual defense pact between Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan.

Tensions with Israel are also on the rise, as Israeli elections approach and Netanyahu seeks to win the vote on a security ticket. Israel has been pushing for diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, but Riyadh insists on a path to Palestinian statehood. There are concerns that tensions between the two countries could escalate into war, though that appears unlikely given their strong militaries.

Azerbaijan's new law prohibiting clothing that contradicts secular education has negatively impacted Türkiye-Azerbaijan relations. However, tensions were already strained due to Azerbaijan's closeness to Israel. Israeli President Herzog's presence at the Seventh Summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia in Baku last week led to protests from Turkish officials and conservative organizations in Istanbul.

On a positive note, Türkiye has made progress in its influence in the region, such as ratifying the Türkiye-Libya agreement on maritime zones. The development highlights Türkiye's evolving role in regional affairs, balancing multiple complex relationships.