NZ election poll watch: right majority possible even if Opportunity enters parliament
The latest 1News Verian poll suggests the right may not need Opportunity to form a government.
The New Zealand election, approaching in two-and-a-half weeks, shows the right gaining a lead over the left in recent polls, potentially allowing them to win a majority without the Opportunity Party. The Verian polls, conducted weekly since late September, reveal that National, ACT, and NZ First together hold 49% of the party list vote, while Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori combined hold 42%.
This results in the right having a 7.3-point lead over the left. If Opportunity were added to the left parties, the right would lead by only one point, close enough to claim a tie. For the left to form a government with Opportunity's support, Te Pāti Māori would need to benefit from an overhang and win more single-member electorates than party vote would allow.
The rise in the right's lead may be due to a lower percentage of respondents predicting the economy to worsen in the next 12 months, from 52-26 to 43-21. Other recent polls from Curia, Anacta, and Freshwater also show the right maintaining a lead, with the Opportunity Party falling just below or just above the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament.
If Opportunity were to gain the 5% threshold, the right would still hold a majority in Curia, but not in Anacta or Freshwater, where a tie would occur. Te Pāti Māori is counting on winning Māori electorates, as its party vote is significantly below the 5% threshold needed to secure entry. If they win three Māori electorates on only 1% of the party vote, they would exceed their entitlement of one seat, causing a two-seat overhang and expanding Parliament to 122 seats. The Greens' support appears to be increasing from 11.6% in the 2023 election.
Written by urgent.news from The Conversation AU's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
