N. Korea may be testing Trump's red lines with increased missile launches in 2nd term: analysis

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may be testing U.S. President Donald Trump's limits, according to a recent analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Victor Cha and Andy Lim, both analysts at CSIS, suggest that Kim's recent surge in missile launches could be an attempt to gauge how far Trump is willing to go in response to his actions.

The analysis reveals that North Korea has carried out 34 missile launches during the first 21 months of Trump's second term, more than double the 17 recorded during the same period of his first term. Furthermore, Pyongyang has already fired at least 93 missiles since Trump took office in January 2025, surpassing the total number of missiles launched throughout his entire first term.

Despite Trump's repeated attempts to engage in diplomatic dialogue with North Korea, Cha and Lim believe that Kim's increasing military activities are pushing the boundaries of Trump's red lines. These red lines include no intercontinental ballistic missile tests, no nuclear tests, and no lethal attacks. The analysts' findings raise concerns about the potential consequences of North Korea's provocative actions in the face of Trump's repeated overtures for renewed dialogue.