Morena is the clear favorite in Mexico’s 2027 midterm elections, say the (very) early polls

Mexico's midterm elections are scheduled for June 2027, and the ruling party Morena currently enjoys a significant lead according to early polls. Conducted by El Financiero on October 19, the poll indicates that 46% of voters intend to support Morena. The National Action Party (PAN) follows as the second most popular option with just 8% of voter intention.

The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and Citizens' Movement (MC) trail with 6% and 5% respectively, while the Green Party (PV) and Labor Party (PT), both allied with Morena, garner 2% and 1% each. Newer parties PAZ and Somos have even smaller followings, at less than 1% each.

When asked about their opinion of each party, Morena again emerged on top, with a favorable rating of 55%. Its electoral partners also performed well, scoring 31% for PV and 29% for PT. The PAN and PRI, however, received negative opinions, with 26% and 21% of eligible voters respectively. The PRI, once in power before Morena, has a particularly poor reputation, with 64% of respondents having a negative view.

The results of the 17 gubernatorial races are less clearcut. In several states such as Baja California, Guerrero, Tlaxcala, Campeche, Colima, Nayarit, Quintana Roo, and Zacatecas, Morena or its allied parties lead by a significant margin, often exceeding double digits. In states like Sinaloa and Michoacán, Morena's lead is less certain.

The northern states of Baja California Sur, Chihuahua, Sonora, and Nuevo León, are considered toss-up states, with the PAN leading in the first three and the PRI and MC challenging Morena in Nuevo León. In three states of El Bajío, which includes Querétaro and Aguascalientes, the PAN is favored to take the governorship.