Mary Peltola Is Pulling Ahead in the Final Stretch Against Dan Sullivan

Alaska Democratic contender Mary Peltola has edged out Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan in recent polls of their crucial Senate race, though the advantage remains razor-thin. Alaska has emerged as a coveted target for Democrats, who aim to capitalize on a potential "blue wave" to regain control of both the House and Senate. Peltola, a former state Congresswoman, has emerged as a formidable candidate amid waning support for President Donald Trump and dwindling confidence in the economy and the Iran conflict.

Democrats must protect all Senate seats and flip four others to secure the majority, with only Maine featuring an incumbent Republican defending their position in a state that voted for Democratic President Kamala Harris in 2024. Democrats have had to extend their reach to target states where Trump received double-digit victories in 2024, including Alaska.

Peltola leads Sullivan by a 44 percent to 42 percent margin in a Rasmussen Reports poll of 775 Alaska likely voters, with a 3 percentage point margin of error. A survey by InsiderAdvantage, conducted between October 9 and October 10, found the former congresswoman with an even larger lead of 5 percent, with Peltola receiving 48 percent support from 1,200 likely voters, while the Republican garnered 43 percent.

Two other Republicans, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. and Gerald L. Heikes, garnered 1.7 percent and 2.2 percent respectively, with 5.3 percent of likely voters undecided. Should Sullivan Jr. and Heikes drop out, Peltola would secure 50.1 percent of the vote, while Sullivan would receive 48.0 percent. Other polls conducted this month also favor Peltola, but the race remains extremely tight.

Republicans have struggled as Trump's approval ratings have declined, along with voter sentiment regarding the economy and the Iran war. Democrats aim to hold onto all Senate seats and flip four others to claim the majority in the upper chamber. Only Maine has an incumbent Republican defending their seat in a state that voted for Democratic President Kamala Harris in 2024.

Over the past few months, Peltola and Sullivan have waged increasingly aggressive attacks on each other, with both campaigns seeking to portray their opponent as out of touch with Alaskans. This was evident in a debate held on October 15, where the candidates sparred over Iran, energy production, and the high cost of fuel in the state.

Peltola argued that Sullivan had voted 14 times in support of the war, while Sullivan emphasized the potential benefits of increased energy production in Alaska. Foreign policy also came under scrutiny, with both candidates opposing the import of Russian diesel and criticizing the Trump administration's treatment of traditional allies.

Democrats are looking to Alaska as a prime target for flipping seats in 2026, alongside Texas, Ohio, and Iowa. Peltola has previously won a statewide election and is running as a centrist, targeting independent voters and moderate Republicans who may not support a candidate endorsed by Trump. The Cook Political Report rates the Alaska Senate race as a toss-up, while Sabato's Crystal Ball has classified the state as leaning Democrat.

The state uses ranked choice voting for federal and state general elections, and close contests can take up to 15 days to finalize due to ongoing absentee ballot processing. With Peltola and Sullivan separated by such a narrow margin, Alaska could be one of the most contentious unresolved Senate races beyond election night. Newsweek sought comment from both Peltola's and Sullivan's campaigns for this report.