LNG shipping stocks: Down on the surface

The UP World LNG Shipping Index fell 6.97 points (3.0%) to close at 224.91, influenced by a broad market downturn as the S&P 500 shed 1.95%, its largest weekly decline since June. However, the sector's internals were more resilient than the headline suggested—while the median constituent fell 0.43%, the weighted index (wUPI) actually increased 2.87%.

This disparity indicated that the decline was largely driven by a few heavier names rather than a genuine sector downturn. Trading volume was above average, with both rising and falling stocks trading in excess. Two Asian companies led the gains with double-digit increases: MISC rose 15.4% due to fleet expansion with QatarEnergy and a newbuild order worth 20 years from Petronas, while Pan Ocean climbed 11% after breaking through key resistance levels.

Notably, oil & gas majors also surged to fresh highs, with BP (+8.6%), Shell (+6.5%), and Chevron (+6.14%) all posting significant gains. Meanwhile, the LNG tanker Shra’ouh, en route to India, altered its course back north toward the United Kingdom before shifting south again, possibly heading for Asia. Gas market conditions remained volatile and bullish, with Asian prices peaking at $29.30/MMBtu and European prices hitting their highest since December 2022 due to Hormuz tanker attacks and robust cross-basin competition.

Morgan Stanley raised its winter TTF forecast to €90/MWh, anticipating a potential rise to €135/MWh under extreme circumstances.