Gimmick or giveback? Even some Trump supporters don't expect to get $5,000 checks after midterms

The 2024 US midterm elections are being influenced significantly by President Donald Trump's war against Iran and its impact on Americans' cost of living. Republicans currently hold both chambers of Congress, while Democrats aim to regain some power on November 3 after struggling during the 2024 presidential election. A Democratic victory in either chamber would provide the opposition with more power to challenge Trump's agenda, allowing them to investigate and call witnesses about administration actions.

Recent polling indicates a more than 85% chance of Democrats winning the House, where they need only to flip a few seats. However, securing a Senate majority is a more challenging task, requiring a gain of four seats, including at least two in states that Trump won by double digits in 2024. The rising cost of living, particularly petrol prices, has become a major political talking point, with diesel prices soaring by nearly 50% since the start of the Iran war in February.

Republicans are struggling with higher prices, and Kristin Diwan, a senior scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute, stated that the Iran war is a liability for the Republican Party, as people blame them for the increased costs. The war is unpopular across party lines, and Trump has attempted to lower prices by permitting Russia to export diesel, which many Americans find unsavory.

A recent survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs found that 86% of Americans believe the Iran war has harmed the cost of living, while 68% think it was not worth fighting. Additionally, 72% of respondents felt that the conflict had damaged America's relations with its allies.

Andrew Payne, a research director at Chatham House, noted that this year's election is unusual, as international affairs could influence domestic political outcomes. Foreign policy rarely decides US elections, but this year, the economy appears to be the new foreign policy.

Recent polls show Trump's approval ratings at record lows, with Americans particularly unhappy about the economy and cost of living. An AP-Norc survey revealed that 65% of US adults attribute higher-than-usual prices to Trump's policies, compared to 44% in October 2022. A Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Monday found Trump's approval rating at a record low of 31%.

While foreign policy may not dominate every race, it may matter at the margins in a tight race. Many Republican candidates are attempting to distance themselves from Trump's policies, as they campaigned on avoiding foreign military entanglements and reducing the cost of living. Trump started a new war against Iran without securing congressional authorization, leading to a debate about presidential war powers.

The Democratic Party has shown skepticism about the Iran deal with Saudi Arabia, which could make legislation more challenging to pass through Congress, although Trump may still have veto power.