Emilia-Romagna: nel primo semestre manifattura +0,6%

Emilia-Romagna continues to produce wealth, but struggles to distribute it as before. It grows at two speeds: the Emilia corridor, which concentrates major companies, industrial sectors, and 70% of the region's GDP, and the plain and Apennine areas, growing further away from the region's economic heart. Guido Caselli, deputy director of Unioncamere Emilia-Romagna, presents a solid yet worrying picture in the research "Map of the Future.

Emilia-Romagna Between the Old and the Unchanged". The numbers show a solid economy, but difficulty in regaining momentum. The regional GDP is expected to grow by 0.9% in 2026, in line with Italy, while a slowdown to 0.7% is forecast for 2027. Manufacturing, which has returned to positive (+0.6% in the first half of the year) after difficult years and is boosted by exports (+3%), is the main supporter of the system.

Other sectors, such as construction and trade, show declines of -0.4% in the first six months of the year, while artisanal production has fallen by -1.5%. The industrial strength remains decisive but insufficient to lift the entire regional economy. The purchasing power is another issue, with real wages for employees in the region having fallen by 5% since 2019, while employee profits have increased by 12%.

Inflation reached 4% in September in Emilia-Romagna, with a 16.6% increase for electricity, gas, and fuels. Caselli calls for two "red threads" of Emilia-Romagna development: the ability of territories to transform numerous companies into a system, through leading companies and industries rooted in place, and the ability to transform economic growth into widespread well-being and social cohesion.

The most evident fracture is geographical, as the Emilia corridor occupies just 30% of the regional surface but hosts 64% of the population and 70% of the GDP. Over the past decade, the population has grown by 4.5%, while the plain and Apennine areas have declined by 0.9% and 1.2%, respectively. The economic gap is even more pronounced, with the central corridor's GDP growing by 6.7% between 2021 and 2025, compared to just 0.2% for the plain and 0.7% for the mountain.

The income per capita also shows significant differences: €27,495 along the Emilia corridor, €24,805 in the plain, and €24,292 in the Apennines. Caselli believes this is the biggest vulnerability to close: bringing development and opportunities beyond the central axis. The logistics simplification zone could reinforce the productive attractiveness and investments in the Ravenna and Ferrara territories, enhancing infrastructures and logistic connections, and, above all, giving value to two historically peripheral provinces of the territory's main economic axis.

The challenge also lies in reviewing major industrial sectors beyond administrative borders. The five regions united by Liguria, Piedmont, Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, and Veneto produce 69% of the Italian manufacturing GDP and 64% of its exports. An integrated system that Caselli calls the "single district of the manufacturing North", where relationships between companies and territories must be reimaged.

The future, finally, depends on demography. By 2040, Emilia-Romagna will gain nearly 84,000 inhabitants but lose 69,000 potential workers and have 317,000 more people over 65. These numbers make it even more urgent to rethink the development model, as the real challenge, according to Caselli, is not just continuing to produce wealth, but returning to distribute its benefits, reconnecting those two red threads that have made Emilia-Romagna one of the most competitive and cohesive territories in Europe.