Canadian dollar outlook: oil prices and Fed signals drive the loonie

The Canadian dollar experienced a significant reversal, with USD/CAD falling from 1.4285 to 1.4048 in just one week. The Canadian dollar strengthened as the U.S. dollar weakened. Oil prices have been a major factor in this shift, with crude oil trading near $98, up 69.9% over the past year and 71.1% year-to-date. Recent U.S. inflation and jobs reports have cooled expectations for further Fed rate hikes, pushing the U.S. dollar lower and providing relief to the Canadian dollar.

With no major Canadian data surprises on the horizon, external forces such as oil prices, U.S. rate moves, and global risk sentiment will be the primary drivers of the Canadian dollar's performance.