British Pound: Gains slight edge over US Dollar – Societe Generale

Societe Generale strategists assert that the British Pound (GBP) has gained a slight advantage over the US Dollar (USD), driven by robust UK macro data and the Bank of England's (BoE) projected rate hike to 4% in November. Falling UK unemployment and rising average earnings bolster the BoE's stance, giving the GBP a potential edge during the year-end seasonals following the Autumn Budget.

UK average earnings growth, particularly in the private sector, has shown a slight increase, supporting the hawkish monetary policy committee members at the BoE who advocate for higher rates to prevent second-round effects. While UK vacancies have decreased by 5.1% year-over-year, nominal and real pay remain stable. Oil prices nearing their highest levels since May suggest no immediate hindrance to the BoE's rate hike.

Additionally, the anticipation of institutional investors liquidating GBP/G10 positions ahead of the budget could further strengthen the pound. The article highlights that the pound could receive support from short-covering and bullish year-end seasonals. Support is listed at 1.3270, with resistance at 1.3400.