Ânima fecha acordo com Einstein. Mercado elogia racional, mas questiona preço

Just days after completing its acquisition of FMU, Ânima Educação surprised investors by announcing a significant investment in a new partnership with the Albert Einstein Hospital. The parent company of IBMEC, Anhembi Morumbi, and São Judas has formed a collaboration with the hospital to receive medical education consulting services and use its esteemed brand for the courses under its health vertical, Inspirali.

While analysts praised the rational behind the deal, some questioned its price due to the difficulty in measuring the benefits of the acquisition, which would depend on various factors.

Following a 7% opening drop, Ânima's shares fell an additional 4% at the end of the day, as Ibovespa climbed 1.5%. The company's market value on the stock exchange stands at R$ 2.15 billion. Under the agreement, which has an initial 20-year duration, Ânima will pay R$ 150 million upfront to the Einstein Hospital, plus a 6% commission on the revenue of all students entering Inspirali after the signing of the deal.

Additionally, there will be an annual additional payment between 2027 and 2036, whose terms were not disclosed by the companies.

"The company is undertaking a unique, irreplicable move that positions its medical courses in a superior league in terms of quality," CFO Átila Simões told Brazil Journal. "We will bring international academic excellence to our courses. The Einstein Hospital is the best in the Southern Hemisphere and the 16th best in the world – a huge differentiator."

Simões said the premium positioning of Inspirali will be accompanied by equivalent pricing, a higher candidate-to-spot ratio, which should lead to better Enamed exam scores, and a lower use of student financing. Analyst Leandro Bastos from Citi said that while he agrees with the company's strategy to increase perceived value amid an increasingly competitive and regulated environment for Brazilian medical schools, "visibility on the marginal economics is still limited at this stage."

"Returns will depend on Inspirali's ability to translate the upfront fee and recurring royalties into tangible financial benefits through higher quotas, better occupancy, and stronger retention, which is still quite difficult to measure at this stage," he added. From an leverage perspective, the increase seems manageable, but not welcomed given the complexity and execution risk already associated with the recent FMU acquisition, the analyst said.

BTG estimates that the 6% commission Ânima will pay could amount to around R$ 100 million per year after the new students replace the existing ones, assuming current revenue remains stable. Samuel Alves, who covers Ânima at BTG, wrote that considering the recurring commissions, upfront payment, and potential contingency fees, the total NPV of the agreement could reach R$ 600 million, depending on the discount rate and assumptions.

Bradesco BBI analyst Marcio Osako was the most enthusiastic about the transaction, saying that the improved quality and association with the Einstein brand "should sustain demand and pricing power, while reducing regulatory risks arising from stricter requirements (for example, the mandatory Enamed exam for practicing medicine)."

The bank estimates the deal could generate a positive VPL of R$ 332 million for the company, equivalent to 16% of its market value. This estimation considered assumptions such as a 3% increase in the number of students, conversion of 60% of financed students to pay with own resources, and a 30% difference in monthly fees.