THE BALLOT BOX OP-ED: AI cannot predict SA’s 2026 elections outcome, but it may influence November 4 polls
AI models do not know how South Africans will vote on 4 November 2026. Yet people increasingly use them to understand the world, and their answers can help shape the reality they merely appear to describe.
AI cannot predict South Africa's 2026 local government elections, but it may shape how people perceive the outcome. Chatbots, such as ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok, Kimi, DeepSeek, and Claude, were asked to rank political parties based on a simulated voter's perspective. The models produced varying results, with the African National Congress (ANC) receiving the most votes (37%), followed by the Democratic Alliance (DA) at 22%, Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) at 13%, MK Party at 12%, and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) at 6%.
This ranking is closer to the 2024 election results and recent polls rather than a prediction. The AI models' responses were influenced by their training data, which included information about the ANC's decline and other political trends. However, the models showed disagreement, with the same party not always receiving the top spot across municipalities.
The models also provided answers in various languages, depending on the voter's home language. The AI-generated results were not a reflection of human sentiment but rather an extrapolation of the political story the models had absorbed from their training data.
Written by urgent.news from Daily Maverick's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
