Rebound in China’s GDP growth keeps 2026 target in sight

Bitcoin and Nasdaq futures rose on Monday following China's economy outperforming expectations in the third quarter, while falling oil prices boosted investor confidence globally. China's GDP expanded 4.5% year-over-year in Q3, surpassing forecasts of 4.4%, and grew at a faster 4.3% rate in the prior quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

Bitcoin briefly surged towards $82,500 as cryptocurrency traders took advantage of stronger economic data and improved conditions in traditional markets. Nasdaq futures also climbed, signaling renewed interest in technology shares after a tough period for AI-related firms. However, the market recovery was inconsistent, as South Korea's Kospi experienced selling pressure after a brief rally, underscoring ongoing worries about tech valuations and AI development expenses.

The Nasdaq in the US gained roughly 1% during Asian trading hours, while S&P 500 contracts advanced around 0.7%. Lower oil prices provided additional support, as investors evaluated the impact on inflation, corporate earnings, and borrowing costs. China's economic data offered reassurance about activity in the world's second-largest economy, with Q3 output increasing 1.2% from the previous quarter, beating expectations of a 1.1% rise and improving from 0.9% growth in Q2.

The stronger performance was driven by exports and industrial output, though weaknesses in consumer spending and property investment persisted. Chinese officials set an annual growth target of 4.5%-5%, and the third-quarter performance was crucial for policymakers deciding on further stimulus measures. Global markets remained cautious about China's growth, which largely relies on exports and industrial investment rather than robust domestic demand.

Oil markets also played a role in trading, with Brent crude futures dropping 1.7% to $107.95 a barrel and US crude falling 0.8% to $100.62, following potential easing of US sanctions on Russia. The decline in oil prices helped alleviate inflation concerns, especially as energy costs influence various sectors globally. US government bonds gained as yields fell, reaching 5.0525% for the 10-year Treasury, offering some relief to markets concerned about high borrowing costs.

Federal Reserve policy expectations continued to influence cryptocurrency investors, with lower inflation potentially allowing for more monetary easing, albeit with competing pressures from energy markets and economic activity. The Federal Reserve's benchmark rate currently sits between 4.75%-5%, and markets anticipate no change at the next meeting.

Asian equities saw an initial boost from bargain-hunting after sharp losses in tech stocks, with Japan's Nikkei and South Korea's Kospi showing volatility due to concerns about AI spending. China's currency appreciated against the dollar, reaching 6.6828, its highest level since July 2022, while gold hovered around $4,181 an ounce as bond yields declined.

European equity futures weakened due to political instability in France, highlighting the diverse impacts on international investment flows. Despite initial gains, Chinese blue-chip stocks fell shortly after the economic data, as investors waited to see if stronger industrial activity would lead to sustained consumer demand improvement.