Polymarket bets favor Eisenkot over Netanyahu ahead of Israeli election

On Monday, the prediction market platform Polymarket indicated Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, as the favored candidate to become Israel's next prime minister ahead of the upcoming election. The market assigned Eisenkot a 49% chance of winning, outpacing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with a 31% probability and former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett at 16%. Polymarket processed about $46 million in trading volume for these outcomes.

The online trading platform also focused on another query: when would Netanyahu depart from his role as prime minister. A related market saw approximately $124.5 million in trading activity, with traders placing a 38% probability on Netanyahu stepping down by December 31, 2026. This market assessed the likelihood of Netanyahu ceasing to serve as prime minister by the specified date rather than his party's electoral defeat.

Polymarket's measurement reflected the total value of transactions, not necessarily unique investments.

In a third market, Polymarket favored Yashar over Likud to secure the most seats in the Knesset. The odds favored Yashar at 68%, compared to 33% for Likud, with nearly $1 million in trading volume for this outcome. The figures represented traders' positions on the platform, not polling results or guarantees of the election's final outcome. Polymarket's prices fluctuated as users engaged in buying and selling shares tied to different possible election scenarios.