PH belum bincang calon ‘poster boy’ PRN Melaka, kata Fahmi

Analysts predict political parties may face dueling solo campaigns in Melaka prior to the PRN, as they seek to gauge individual strength ahead of the PRU16. Syaza Shukri, from Universiti Islam Antarabangsa Malaysia, warns that inter-communal vote splitting among Malays is the greatest concern, especially for Umno and PAS. "If Malay voters split their votes, they might still win, but it would be like the 2021 Melaka PRN, where more than one-third of seats were won with narrow majorities.

The public may question the legitimacy of the winning party," she says. Syaza advocates for a coalition between Umno and PAS to demonstrate they have a people's mandate, allowing Pakatan Harapan (PH) to be completely defeated. Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri from Global Asia Consulting warns that partisan parties attempting to secure large seat distributions may find their true support levels are far smaller than claimed.

Smaller parties may lack candidates, funds, voter diversity, and sufficient grassroots networks to meaningfully compete across all parliamentary or DUN constituencies, while larger parties may fear a poor outcome would weaken their standing ahead of PRU16. Melaka serves as a testing ground, Syaza notes, where a coalition could win a large percentage of Malay votes, but it remains unclear whether that support is driven by Umno or PAS.

However, Syaza believes if both parties contest solo, the "blue wave" narrative may lose relevance. Zaharuddin argues Melaka offers a valuable political experiment, where a PRN result can signal the true cost and benefits of standing alone. In 2021, BN won 21 DUN seats, followed by PH (5) and PN (two). However, the real value of standing alone extends beyond seat counts, allowing parties to measure authentic appeal, organizational strength, candidate quality, and ability to attract voters beyond traditional support bases.

Sometimes coalitions may create an illusion of strength by combining diverse voter bases. By contesting solo, parties can reveal which ones have genuine grassroots support and which rely heavily on coalition or swing vote support. PAS is expected to run solo in Melaka despite urging for unity with Umno and BN, as it could strengthen its parliamentary standing if it can overcome Umno's recent performance, as seen in PRU15.

However, if PAS loses and BN forms the Melaka government, it would remain a status quo. PAS currently holds two of Melaka's six parliamentary seats, while BN lost all seats in PRU15. Syaza predicts PAS could gain an advantage in future negotiations with BN if it can improve upon Umno's shortcomings, but losing would merely maintain the status quo.

Meanwhile, Zaharuddin believes PH should also contest solo in Melaka to build a strong foundation ahead of PRU16. PH needs to understand if its voters still support reformist agendas, whether its component parties can maintain individual parliamentary bases, and whether undecided voters will be convinced that it offers a viable alternative government.