Oil-rich Alberta votes on Canada breakup

Alberta, a province rich in oil reserves, is set to vote on Monday whether to pursue a binding referendum on leaving Canada. Prime Minister Mark Carney has warned that a separatist win would introduce dangerous uncertainty during a trade war with the United States. Despite polls indicating less than a quarter of Albertans support independence, attention has focused on the turnout and whether separatists could defy the polls, aided by complacency among federalists.

Carney, who grew up in Alberta, has called the referendum a "dangerous bluff" as US President Donald Trump imposes punishing tariffs and threatens annexation. The vote comes amid anger over Ottawa's management of the oil sector, with many Albertans resenting the previous Liberal government's efforts to curb production to advance environmental policies. One separatist rally attendee, Sandy Martel, said the oil industry feels "robbed, cheated, and mistreated," urging people to "stand up and say stop."

The pre-referendum period saw a deluge of manipulated AI content, prompting Carney to urge a "decisive result." However, experts worry about a contested outcome, even if the vote is clear. Close Trump allies have also entered the debate, with treasury secretary Scott Bessent describing Alberta as a "natural partner" for the US. In the event of a separatist win, Carney's successor, conservative Premier Danielle Smith, has pledged to move forward with the referendum.