Konjunktur: Chinas Wirtschaft wächst etwas schneller - Probleme bleiben

China's economy experienced a slight increase in growth during the summer months, but domestic issues persist. The country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.5 percent in the third quarter compared to the same period last year, according to Beijing's statistics office. This growth rate was slightly higher than economists had anticipated.

In the second quarter, the growth rate was 4.3 percent, and at the start of the year, it had been 5.0 percent. For the first nine months of the year, the economy showed a growth of 4.6 percent. This places China within the government's target growth range of 4.5 to 5 percent for the entire year. Statistics office spokesperson Mao Shengyong expressed confidence that China can meet its annual goal.

He stated that the conditions for achieving this goal are favorable. The slowdown in the second quarter was attributed to the development of oil prices following the situation in the Middle East. He expects an improvement in the final quarter. China's economy continues to develop very differently, with the export boom being a significant driver.

In the first nine months, exports increased by 21.3 percent in US dollars compared to the previous year, with September showing a growth of 36.3 percent. The surge in demand for technology products globally, such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence equipment, is boosting business. China exported goods worth approximately $938 billion (around €834 billion) more abroad than it imported from January to September.

This massive trade surplus is increasingly causing tensions with important trade partners, especially in Europe, where concerns are growing about Chinese products putting pressure on domestic manufacturers. The industrial sector remains an important pillar of the economy. In September, production of major industrial enterprises increased by 5.5 percent compared to the previous year, compared to 5.2 percent in August.

The real estate crisis continues to worsen domestically. While retail sales grew by 1.1 percent in September compared to the previous year, more than expected, consumer spending remains weak. Many consumers continue to be cautious about large purchases. Even more evident is the weakness in investment. Overall, less money flowed into new factories, machines, buildings, and infrastructure compared to the previous year.

The so-called fixed investment decreased by 7.2 percent from January to September compared to the previous year. Particularly concerning is the ongoing real estate crisis. Fixed investment in real estate development fell by 20.6 percent in the first nine months. The real estate crisis affects the economy in multiple ways. Many homes are losing value, causing concern among owners who spend less money as a result.

Construction companies are launching fewer new projects and awarding fewer contracts to builders. At the same time, many cities are short on funds. They have earned significantly from selling land to construction companies in the past, but since the real estate crisis, these revenues have dropped sharply. Beijing is trying to counterbalance this situation.

Since October, there have been government interest rate subsidies for new loans for purchasing the first home under certain conditions. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently lowered its growth expectations for China. For this year, it forecasts a growth rate of 4.5 percent, and for 2027, only 4.0 percent. The fund warns of the consequences of weak domestic demand and calls for stronger support for consumption.

In the long term, it could become more difficult for China to balance its economic problems with increasingly higher exports.