Indian rupee likely pinned near 95 as RBI defence counters oil headwinds

The Indian rupee may be expected to trade near 95 against the US dollar at the start of the week, as traders anticipate the Reserve Bank of India will intervene to defend the currency, according to the latest wire service report. The central bank's dollar sales are anticipated to provide support to the rupee and maintain it near the level that traders consider the RBI's soft defense line. On Friday, the rupee settled at 94.96 to the dollar, with traders expecting it to open in the range of 94.92 to 94.98 per dollar.

The Indian rupee has been fluctuating around the 95-per-dollar mark in recent sessions, briefly crossing the level before failing to hold it. When the rupee has fallen past this mark, it has repeatedly encountered resistance. This pattern suggests that the RBI may be selling dollars to prevent the currency from slipping further, making the 95 level a critical support for the rupee in the near term, as noted by a currency trader at a bank.

Prior to the week, the rupee delivered its strongest weekly performance in nearly four years, driven by the RBI's measures to bolster the currency and multiple dollar sales in the spot market. The Reserve Bank has intensified its intervention to bolster the rupee, which is under pressure from high oil prices and capital outflows.

This intensified defense of the rupee, along with the RBI's buy/sell swaps, is evident in the country's foreign exchange reserves. The reserves have dwindled by nearly $60 billion since the first week of September, falling to $726 billion as of October 9.

Oil prices represent a significant challenge for the rupee, with Brent crude prices briefly surging above $110 a barrel on Friday for the first time since May. However, prices eased slightly on Monday, settling around $108 a barrel after US President Donald Trump exempted new sanctions on Russia and lifted tariffs on Russian goods, potentially opening the door for increased Russian fuel exports.

Most analysts and investors agree that the RBI's efforts to support the rupee will be limited unless oil prices decline significantly.